Customer Reviews:
Showing reviews 6-10 of 155
 No Risk here, The Odds areYou'll love it. December 28, 2001
Alessandro Bruno (Toronto, Canada)
28 out of 31 found this review helpful
i'm very much a novice in the study of risk and probabilities; however, I've been lucky enough to come across some excellent business oriented books - but in actuality and thankfully far more philosophical than financial - (Fooled by Randomness for instance) lately that have done a masterful job of presenting this seemingly dry subject in a very fascinating way. Bernstein has probably written the quintessential historical study on Risk and Probability with this volume. It is filled with interesting details of the human qualities and quirks of the mathematicians and philosophers that investigated the problems of probablity and explains the mathematics involved with lucidity and wit. The book follows a chronological approach; however, it's also thematic to show the evolution of the subject of risk management and the influence of other sciences on it - such as evolution. Those that refuse to accept the idea that markets remain unpredictable despite the development of modern risk control mechanisms like derivatives, computer modelling, and modern financial instruments will find this book frustrating. Those who want a wquick fix investment solutions guide will be even angrier and will nort find anything useful here. This book belongs in the philosophy of science and History of Ideas sections far more than the business dept. Nonetheless, the serious and thoughtful investor is advised to read this book carefully. as someone who's lost in the stock markets himself the Bernstein's book can reduce the sting of the loss and impart some well needed wisdom. I no longer invest but I loved this book all the same.
Great foundation and barrier breaker December 21, 2000
Mike Tarrani (Deltona, FL USA)
7 out of 9 found this review helpful
This book provides an interesting and entertaining history of the evolution of risk management - although it was more aptly called "winning at games of chance" at the beginning :-) On a serious note, the book's main value to me is sharing it with collegues and friends who shy away from probability and other quantative methods. It has broken the "I-hate-math" barrier for more than one person with whom I have shared a copy (or purchased one as a gift), and I dare say it has helped in their professional advancement. This is particularly true for project managers who get tossed into the profession by chance (yes, that was intended as an oblique pun), and quickly discover that their success depends upon a good understanding of probability in order to correctly estimate work as well as manage project risk. Most of these folks are great at relationship management, but fall into the "I-hate-math" catagory. This book leads them to the math part via a great story with gentle introductory examples of the underlying numbers. In that respect it not only sparks interest in the subject, but provides the self-confidence to wade into the "dreaded subject". Before I go off into a rambling and confusing review of an excellent book, let me end this with two points: (1) it is great reading, regardless of your interest in probability or risk - view it as an historical novel and enjoy it, and (2) it is a gentle introduction to [admittedly] dry material that you will have to get from technical books. I loved it - your mileage may vary.
risk explained for poets and gear heads July 23, 2005
Robert J. Crawford (Balmette Talloires, France)
9 out of 10 found this review helpful
This is a history of the notion of risk, which is written to please both math jocks (gearheads) and poets (their opposites). As a financial advisor, Bernstein knows all about the former, which he can explain in layman terms to the latter. The result is a truly brilliant book.
According to Bernstein, our notion of risk occured in 3 stages. It began in the 16th C, when Renaissance mathematicians turned their attention to Earth, a major departure from the preoccupations of philosophers since antiquity, who studied the motions of the planetary bodies as the only measurable regularities in nature. The new guys studied dice and other games of chance as well as bookkeeping and the insurance industry (i.e. useful to the rising bourgoisie). This represented a revolution in our notion of fate, he says, as the future was regarded more as something human beings could master and manipulate regardless of their birth station, etc.
FOr the next 200 years, Bernstein reports, mathematicians attempted to measure, with rapidly evolving tools (physical and conceptual), what they believed could be "known" with certainty. Pascal and Fermat formulated the general rules for the calculation of probabilities, which was the first real step in the science of risk management, that is, recognising that math rules could guide decisions about the future. Bernstein argues that this signalled the birth of the modern era, in which rational planning replaced mystics and numerologists.
This was the golden age of classical statistics. First, researchers examined what could be inferred of the whole from a limited number of observations (statistical inference, as in vote sampling today). Then, they turned their gaze to uncertainty, which they might estimate. This resulted in Bayes' theorem, which incorporates intuition into the equasion. THe bell curve was also discovered.
I found Bernstein's third stage the most interesting, i.e. post-WWI. This was a time when the confidence in Western rationalism came into question, not only whether we operate logically but if we even come to the right conclusions when armed with the "required" information. At this time, the science of risk breaks into a number of competing schools, whose arguments are mutually exclusive, including game theory.
FInally, Bernstein offers up some surprisingly skeptical financial advice. Investment professionals, we learn, rarely do consistently better than random choices (!) and if they develop a system that works, it will quickly become obsolete because others will copy it.
This book is an extremely useful review of the complicated, sometimes arcane techniques that many of us sweated through during late nights a grad student toil. I hated every minute of it, but in Bernstein's hands it is indeed facsinating and written with a remarkable clarity. Berstein makes a lively case for the judicious use of this risk-analysis techniques - we should take them into account even if we fail to follow them rationally. His book is a useful primer for investor caution, i.e. quantitative techniques are useful but should be questioned continually. There are also innumerable fascinating asides, in which personal details of the mathematicians are examined with humor and psychological depth.
Warmly recommended.
The inevitable nature of risk July 25, 2002
Martyn Richard Jones (Cordoba, Spain)
12 out of 13 found this review helpful
Dear Amazon.com Reader,All I can say for starters is "what an excellent work!". This book is an amazing account of the history of risk and it's role in society from the distant past, through the ages and right up to the present day. It gives a charming and fascinating insight into the world of risk taking and risk management, told with all the ease of a great communicator whose subject fits them like a kid glove. I read this book alongside a heavier tome on Risk Management - Mr Philippe Jorion's excellent "Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk" that is - and I am thankful that I did, because not only did it act as a much welcomed counter-balance to some hefty risk theory but it also introduced me, in a light and accessible manner, to some of the concepts that I had been struggling with - an experience much like as if one could access a trusted source of profound knowledge on a subject, in my case Risk Management, without feeling that your brain has been given the once over with a common kitchen liquidizer. An excellent, informative and interesting read. I would recommend it to anyone who wants a thorough, intelligent and readable introduction to risk. However, one word of caution, this book has not been written to spoon-feed the less than enquiring mind, and to get the best out of it one really has to be a little more proactive and participatory. In some places it's like as if there are little puzzles left for the reader to think-out for themselves - which I find really quite engaging, a rare treat, the nearest thing to interaction one could get with the author via their written word. Best regards, martyn_jones@iniciativa.org
From the Greek's dice - today..........fantastic !!! March 7, 2006
Franco Arda (Switzerland)
8 out of 8 found this review helpful
Against the Gods is a fantastic book for people who love to read the history of risk, dating back as far as to the greeks. Bernstein's passion to the topic makes it a clear 5 star book. And he's passions shows on almost every page. Example: if you are just interested in the Markowitz formula, don't buy this book. But if you wanna read that Markowitz's methodology is a synthesis of the ideas of Pascal, de Moivre, Bayes, Laplace, Guass, Galton, Daniel Bernoulli (especially since he's had the same nationality than me) and von Neumann & Morgenstern. Furthermore, that Markowitz's methodolgy draws on probability theory, on sampling, on the bell curve and dispersion around the mean, on regression to the mean, and on utility theory. If this history is what interests you, this book is for you (if not only for the great title & book cover) !
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