The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge Series on Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics) | 
 enlarge | Author: Ian Hacking
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Category: Book
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Sales Rank: 404739
Media: Paperback
Edition: 2
Pages: 244
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.8
Dimensions (in): 8.9 x 5.9 x 0.8
ISBN: 0521685575
Dewey Decimal Number: 519.5
EAN: 9780521685573
Publication Date: July 31, 2006
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Product Description
Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. The contemporary debates center around figures such as Pascal, Leibniz, and Jacques Bernoulli. Hacking invokes a wider intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted. First published in 1975, this edition includes a new introduction that contextualizes his book in light of new work and philosophical trends.
Book Description
Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. First published in 1975, this edition includes a new introduction that contextualizes his book in light of new work and philosophical trends.
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| Customer Reviews:
 excellent historical account of probability theory at its infancy March 14, 2008
Michael R. Chernick (Holland PA)
25 out of 25 found this review helpful
This is the second edition of a book originally published in 1975. The main addition seems to be a large chapter-like section titled "Introduction 2006: The Archaeology of probable reasoning" that puts the work in contect with the thinking, research and publications from 1975-2006 that relate to the topic of the book.
The main premise of the book is that although probabilistic ideas may have been around before 1670 and the detailed mathematical theory of probability and statistics occurred in the 20th century, the original work of men such as Pascal, Liebniz, Laplace, De Moivre, Huygens, and Jacques Bernoulli from around 1670 to the early 1700s really mark the emergence of probability as a discipline and the development of mathematical results that spawned the development of various theories of probability that came about in the 20th Century.
This book is not a technical book and the specific mathematics that is covered is fairly easy for the layperson to understand. The key Idea is that in the work of Pascal and others dual concepts of probability emerged and the distinctions between the two concepts were not clearly delineated at the time. In a very historical account (much like the works of Porter and Stigler)that is also very philosophical in nature hacking points to the two concepts of probability. One is based solely on relative frequencies of occurrences based on empirical data. This led to the development in the 20th century of the work by Richard von Mises and A. N. Kolmogorov. The second concept is based on degrees of belief and led shortly to the work of Thomas Bayes and in the 20th century, Bruno De Finetti, Harold Jeffreys and L. J. Savage in what became known as the Bayesian or subjectivist school of probability and statistical inference.
Hacking refers to the frequentist approach as aleatory probability and the Bayesian approach as epistemic probability. Hacking sees more than two schools of probability, induction and statistical inference. It is Hacking's contention that the emergence of probability can be attributed precisely to the time about 1670 when the work of Pascal first came out. He sees this strong development as the result of the need for probability in several areas. The earliest was games of chance. But it was only because of issues in the law, theology, economics, physics, atronomy and other sciences that the need led to the field flourishing with the top minds of the 17th and 18th centuries addressing the philosphical and mathematical issues. Included were Newton, Liebniz, Pascal, De Moivre, Laplace, Huygens and Bernoulli.
As a professional statistician I found it interesting to learn how the works of the late 1600s and early 1700s influenced probability and statistics as it developed in the 20th century. Some of this work was familiar to me but much of it was not. For example, I found it interesting to learn that the "first" theorem in probability wsa Jacques Benoulli's proof of the weak law of large numbers. This was given as part of his work "Ars conjectandi", the art of conjecturing. Bernoulli died in 1705 and it wasn't until 1713 that his Nephew Nicholas Bernoulli was able to get it into print.
This book is very well researched and the author presents his case in a very articulate manner. I think anyone with an serious interest in probability would enjoy this book. It also contains an excellent bibliography that is 15 pages long. I have not read it but I expect that the authors other book "The Taming of Chance" would be equally informative and fascinating.
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