Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide

Vose has done a great job providing a brief but solid introduction to probability and statistics. It also serves as a great practical reference for the details and applications of all of the commonly used probability distribution functions.

He expertly summarizes each of the main steps a modeller will face in developing a model, providing very practical examples with helpful figures illustrating exactly how to implement the example in a spreadsheet.

The introduction could be improved by describing the context of his book, largerly directed towards cost analysis of projects, in the very broad field of Quantiative Risk Analysis. If I could add a section to the book, I would devote a chapter to common errors committed by the novice modeller. Minor criticisms aside, I do not hesitate in recommending this book as a reference for experts. I think it provides the fastest route up the learning curve for the novice modeller.


Excellent Text for Applied Risk Engineers   April 23, 2001
8 out of 8 found this review helpful

I work in the field of risk and reliability engineering and I am thoroughly impressed by this book. This is especially useful for engineers who are not used to working with probability theory. Although many of the examples are from the health sciences, the methodology can be applied to engineering problems as well. It's worth the price, though I would like to see more examples using Crystal Ball software. I would also like to see more information on probabilistic risk assessment methods like event trees and it's implementation in Excel / Crystal Ball.


An excellent guide and primer - clear and concise.   August 18, 1997
6 out of 7 found this review helpful

This text provides an excellent primer for those interested in the field of Monte Carlo modelling, but without a strong background in mathematics/statistics. The text is extremely concise and well expressed, and leads the reader through each aspect of quantitative risk analysis without burdening him/her with unnecessary detail nor explanation. I believe that this book will prove to be tremendously useful for all those approaching the subject of quantitative risk analysis, or those who wish to be able to better understand the results of analyses conducted by others. Sam Beckett, Massey University, New Zealand


Rigouros, clear and practical   April 20, 2003
3 out of 3 found this review helpful

This book gives a deep insight into the state of the art and recent developments of quantitative risk analysis using simulation methods. Describes topics such as second order risk analysis I never heard about before. I used the knowledge drawn from this book to write some technical papers (published on peer-reviewed journals and seminars proceedings). Specialized software, such as @-risk and crystal ball is not strictly needed to carry out the risk-analysis systems suggested by the author (but pretty advanced skills with excel or use of math softwares are required). The specific subject of the book is risk modelling by Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesan analysis; it does not deal with fuzzy models or other uncertainty-propagation methods. I highly reccomend this book to anyone interested into the specific subject.


Best Book for Quantitative Risk Analysis   April 25, 2004
4 out of 5 found this review helpful

I believe that this book is the best of many Risk Analysis books. The book's structure, starting from fundamental topics and guiding to advanced topics, is excellent. So, I translated this book into Japanese! You will make the best use of the book with Excel add-in Monte Carlo simulation software like @Risk and Crystal ball that you can get its trial version from the vendor's site(free!). But, the value of this book is not decreased with its sophistitated notation even if you don't have such software. You can enjoy the logic of Quantitative Risk Analysis. Now, the author is preparing his original software. I hope it will be as valuable as this book.