Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes | 
 enlarge | Authors: Mark Penn, E. Kinney Zalesne
Publisher: Twelve
Category: Book
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Rating:  65 reviews
Sales Rank: 19237
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 448
Number Of Items: 1
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Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 6.3 x 1.6
ISBN: 0446580961
Dewey Decimal Number: 303.4973
EAN: 9780446580960
Publication Date: September 5, 2007
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Product Description
"The ideas in his book will help you see the world in a new way."-Bill Clinton
"Mark Penn has a keen mind and a fascinating sense of what makes America tick, and you see it on every page of Microtrends."
-Bill Gates
In 1982, readers discovered Megatrends.
In 2000, The Tipping Point entered the lexicon.
Now, in Microtrends, one of the most respected and sought-after analysts in the world articulates a new way of understanding how we live.
Mark Penn, the man who identified "Soccer Moms" as a crucial constituency in President Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign, is known for his ability to detect relatively small patterns of behavior in our culture-microtrends that are wielding great influence on business, politics, and our personal lives. Only one percent of the public, or three million people, is enough to launch a business or social movement.
Relying on some of the best data available, Penn identifies more than 70 microtrends in religion, leisure, politics, and family life that are changing the way we live. Among them:
- People are retiring but continuing to work.
- Teens are turning to knitting.
- Geeks are becoming the most sociable people around.
- Women are driving technology.
- Dads are older than ever and spending more time with their kids than in the past.
You have to look at and interpret data to know what's going on, and that conventional wisdom is almost always wrong and outdated. The nation is no longer a melting pot. We are a collection of communities with many individual tastes and lifestyles. Those who recognize these emerging groups will prosper.
Penn shows readers how to identify the microtrends that can transform a business enterprise, tip an election, spark a movement, or change your life. In today's world, small groups can have the biggest impact.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 60 more reviews...
 A Micro Atomic Theory of Consumer and Potential Voting Behavior September 23, 2007
Larry Mark (nyc)
47 out of 53 found this review helpful
I enjoy demographic and trend books, like "Lattitudes and Attitudes," and was slightly enchanted by Claritas urban/rural clusters, like "Shotguns and Pickups." But this book is far better at discovering behavioral groups and driving home, with humor and data, the trends as well as the policy or business options to complement the highlighted behaviors.
Three decades ago, Penn sat in a Harvard library and read a book by Valdimer Orlando Key, Jr., in which he wrote that `voters are not fools.' Key was known for promoting realism and rationality in the analysis of politics and election returns. Voters and consumers should be seen as being rational. As Penn writes, it is not about a male candidate's necktie color, but real issues. If one takes the time to understand the trends, one can find the roots of behaviors and desires, and potentially the future consuming and voting patterns. To that end, Penn, a pollster for over 30 years (actually he first administered a poll on his teachers at the age of 13), Clinton's lead pollster/strategist, and the person credited with defining "soccer moms" (busy suburban mothers with families and careers and political policy goals who were swing voters in the last decade) has explored and highlighted 75 out of hundreds of microtrends - these small, under the radar forces that involve as little as 1% of America's population and registered prime voters - which may affect America's future.
In the book, Penn is quick to point out that a microtrend is not merely a development, like the increased use of debit cards or wives changing their surnames upon marriage, but a growing interest group with needs and desires which are unmet by the corporate or political environment. The authors have made it easy to digest, have used a lot of humor to reinforce the points, and have closed each microtrend discussion with specific business or policy products or ideas that can meet the needs of the group. For some microtrends, they include a section on international comparisons to the American trend.
Some of the most interesting microtrends are: The growth of households comprised of single women (In 1980, 17% of Americans lived in solo households, now this figure is closer to one in four Americans). These women will need to plan for their retirements alone, so all those television commercials with couples on beaches are not speaking to them. Another growing trend is "cougars," or women, like "Mrs. Robinson," who date or marry men a decade younger than they are. They may require a new type of pre-nup or detective service. The trend for retired workers to continue working may necessitate tax law changes or a redirection of benefits from maternity leaves to `winter-off" options. Extreme Commuters have more time on their hands to read or listen (if they use mass transit); and the growth of Stay at Home workers may generate a need for changed zoning laws or more secure home offices in residential design. Protestant Hispanics (Hispanics are 14% of the U.S. population and 8% of registered voters) comprise 25% of Americans who identify as Hispanic. While 33% of Catholic Hispanics voted for Bush in the last election (unchanged from the 2000 race), Protestant Hispanics actually increased their votes for Bush from 44 percent to 56, and Pentecostal Hispanics were actually a key force that tipped the 2004 race to Bush. Penn points out that Bush's immigration policies have since changed attitudes, but this microtrend will be a growing factor in American elections. 30-Winkers are Americans who sleep less, take more naps, need caffeine, and need ways to be either more productive when they are awake or find solutions to their lack of sleep. While the microtrend of "XXX Men" is cute, that being the consumption of internet pornography at the office on corporate networks, the trend most interesting to me was Pro-semites or Philo-semites: the growing number of people who want to date Jewish men and women (11% of J-Date members are non Jews). They no longer view Jews as bearded outsiders as Woody Allen envisioned he was perception in "Annie Hall." Jewish women are no longer stereotyped as just making reservations for dinner (68% of Jewish women aged 25-44 have college degrees, the highest percentage of any religious group in America). Penn points out that in 1939, a Roper poll found that 53% of respondents thought Jews should be restricted; In 2006, a Gallup poll found the 54% had positive views of Jews, higher than any other religious group mentioned; also in a 2006 poll, 40% of non-Jews queried said that they would be interested in dating a Jew.
Overall, an easily digestible book with lots of ideas for entrepreneurs, policy designers, HR managers, and tattoo artists.
Excellent analysis of contemporary society May 28, 2008
Gaetan Lion
3 out of 3 found this review helpful
This is a really fun and fascinating book. Penn's theory is "the Devil is in the details." Don't look for overarching trends that end up being vapid and inaccurate. Look instead for the hundreds of small trends under the radar screen that in combination radically changes society.
To enjoy this book read the introduction and the conclusion first. Then, cherry pick the trends you are most interested in. In the introduction, Penn outline his theory of the 1% threshold. By the time 1% of Americans do something this represents a huge cluster of 3 million people that is worth paying attention to. Within the conclusion, Penn makes sense of all those disparate trends. That's where he explains how our society is becoming increasingly fragmented because of the growth of choice in lifestyle, values, and religions. Thus, many trends are contradictory. We live in an increasingly secular world with a rise in religions. Both trends (secularism and religion) thrive simultaneously. Each trend he analyses is a stand alone short paper on a specific subject. At some point, you may run out of trends you are interested in. You don't have to read all 73 trends to enjoy the book.
Within each trend analysis, Penn first observes the data and how that trend emerged and came to be. Next he outlines what are the trend's implications. The people representing that trend often make up a niche associated with the creation of new markets, voting block or cultural influence.
Sometimes, you may think several trends converge. In other words, the emergence of single women must correlate to the surge in Cougars (women with younger boyfriends) and Wordy Women (successful career women in law, journalism, PR, and advertising). These women may be all the same ones: single-successful-liberated. Another potential convergence is the Long Attention Spanners, DIY Doctors, Swing Voter, and Sun Haters. Here you have a mature educated crowd that likes to think for themselves especially when pertaining to their health and politics.
Many of his trends refer to entire books. His `Educated Terrorists' trend relies on Alan Krueger's What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism (Lionel Robbins Lectures). Similarly, his `Shy Millionaire' liens on The Millionaire Next Door.
On the other hand, other trends are truly original. I had never heard of the Do-It-Yourself Doctors. These people research their symptoms, render their own diagnostics and administer their own cure. They have changed the patient-doctor relationship to one of retailer-customer. The doctor is just there to facilitate procurement of prescription drugs, tests, and surgical intervention when necessary. Just as the overall population, they distrust the medical establishment. Trust in the latter has decreased from 77% in 1966 to only 33% currently.
His depiction of the `Impressionable Elites' is also counterintuitive. It is the higher income and better educated that care more about personality and less about issues in Presidential Elections. This is just the reverse of what we believe. The archetype is star journalists and newscasters who are certainly wealthy and educated. But, they focus on sound bites, looks, hair cuts, and other trivia. Apparently, the rest of us are more concerned about substantive issues such as foreign policy, health care, education, and economic competitiveness. Penn deplores the advent of the 527 advocacy organizations and Elite Donors who give readily $10,000 a pop to affiliated political groups. Given these are funded by the Impressionable Elites; they foster more trivia than substance on our political debates.
His chapter on the power of the swing voter is excellent. Independents have increased from 25% to 33% of the voters over the past 50 years. He indicated how Karl Rove strategy of rallying the conservative base failed in the 2006 mid-term election. However, Karl Rove did not have much of a role in this election. But, he sure did in both 2000 and 2004. Penn makes the argument that one independent voter amounts to two polarized voters because they represent a swing in the numbers. He is right. But, the counter argument is that it is a lot more difficult to convince an independent voter to change his mind than to tell your base to just show up and vote. Nevertheless, this is an excellent section that parallels very much the equally fascinating work in Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America (Great Questions in Politics Series) (2nd Edition) (Great Questions in Politics)
His chapter on active, employed elders suggests the fiscal stress on Social Security will be less than conveyed by the pundits. His chapter on the aging of Europe is also interesting. The median age of Europeans is expected to increase from 37.7 years to 52.7 years by 2050. While for Americans it will remain stable around 36 years. This has obviously dire fiscal implication for Europe. But, he thinks the next generation of Europeans will solve the related problems as they will be a generation of confident, problem-solving, achieving only children. This sounds a bit facile, but interesting nonetheless.
As he mentions in his conclusion, trends often have counter trends. There are more Muslim terrorists. But, there are also more Moderate Muslims in America. That's a fascinating trend he uncovers. He also outlines the drastic difference between the American vs European Muslims. The American ones are moderate, well-integrated, educated, successful, and prosperous. The European ones are disenfranchised, radicalized, and unemployed. This is a fascinating subject that has been covered by many equally interesting books including: While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within and American Islam: The Struggle for the Soul of a Religion.
Piercing Stubborn Conventional Wisdom - Counterintuitive Trends and Solving Substantial Challenges November 4, 2007
Thomas M. Loarie (Danville, CA USA)
7 out of 8 found this review helpful
Mark Penn, "characterized by some as the most powerful man in Washington that you never heard of," shares his cutting edge insights on the small forces that are behind tomorrow's big changes in "Microtrends." Penn emerged on the national scene as a pollster for Bill Clinton in the 1990s. This is a must read for companies, marketers, policymakers, and others who want to understand and influence society's behavior.
Penn notes that many of the biggest movements today are small - generally hidden from the most careful observer. There are no longer a couple of megaforces sweeping us all along. Instead, America and the world are being pulled apart by an intricate maze of choices, accumulating in "microtrends"- small, under-the-radar forces that can involve as little as one percent of the population, but which are powerfully shaping our society.
Penn provides the magnifying glasses and microscopes (polls, surveys, and statistics) to study various slices, laying them open for examination in "Microtrends." The author looks at seventy-five groups, who by virtue of their daily decisions, are forging the shape of America and the world both today and tomorrow. These are organized under fifteen categories ranging from Love, Sex, and Relationships; Race and Religion; Health and Wellness; to Family; Money and Class; and Looks and Fashion.
Several "microtrends" from the book will provide the flavor for the feast awaiting the reader:
* While women may be poised to dominate America's religion-based professions, stricter religions, which do not allow women-clergy, are growing and liberalized religions are shrinking.
* While the number of people who sleep fewer than six hours per night is rising fast, these "30-Winkers" experience higher rates of poor health (obesity), worry, stress, and low income.
* The home schooling movement in America is taking root in a significant way despite education becoming more advanced, and parents spending less time overall helping their kids. There is a group of committed citizens consumed with home-schooling and this group is growing fast.
"Microtrends" is organized with the reader in mind. The reader can easily pick those subject areas of greatest importance. The book will serve as an excellent reference for a couple of years but for relevance, Penn will have to update the material periodically since trends change and new trends emerge at a furious rate.
"Microtrends" is an excellent and valuable read. The reader will not be disappointed.
A Fascinating Look at the "Little" Trends in Modern Life October 16, 2007
Dr. Jonathan Dolhenty (Port Orford, OR United States)
5 out of 6 found this review helpful
When "Microtrends" arrived on my desk, I wasn't sure what I was about to get into. I'm used to dealing with "big" trends or "macrotrends" as they are usually called. As part of my doctoral program many years ago, I had to choose a research technique and prove some proficiency in it. It was usually required up to the latter years of the 20th century for doctoral candidates to show a reading knowledge of some "scholarly" language - German, French, Latin, or some ancient language were common choices depending upon one's academic discipline. This requirement underwent a change, however, and many doctoral students, particularly in the newer research disciplines were allowed choices outside of the language area. For example, a working knowledge of computer research techniques or a knowledge of quantitative analysis (read "statistical research and measurement") could be substituted for the language requirement.
Since I had chosen French for my master's degree, and because of a budding interest in empirical research in the social sciences, I opted to use quantitative analysis to satisfy the research requirement. So I took a number of courses in statistics and measurement techniques, finally passing a qualifying exam in a general seminar in quantitative analysis. I have been captivated with statistical studies of social phenomena ever since. This may explain why I found "Microtrends" a fascinating read, a real page-turner for those, such as yours truly, who enjoy investigating and analyzing what is going on in the entire public sphere. Microtrends are the "little" trends in life, the ones to which, all too often, scant attention is paid, but which can have huge consequences.
Mark Penn examines more than 70 microtrends in his book, ranging from those in human relationships, race and religion, family, politics, teens, to looks and fashions -- and these are just a few of the larger categories included. Yes, there are many specific microtrends discussed within these larger categories, such as those affecting Christian Zionists, Vegan Children, High School Moguls, Shy Millionaires, New Luddites, Numbers Junkies, and Educated Terrorists, just to name a few. It's a roller-coaster ride through almost the entire cultural milieu and the numbers are extremely interesting. But, as Penn points out: "The power of individual choice has never been greater, and the reasons and patterns for those choices never harder to understand and analyze. The skill of microtargeting -- identifying small, intense subgroups and communicating with them about their individual needs and wants -- has never been more critical in marketing or in political campaigns. The one-size-fits-all approach to the world is dead." And so it seems.
However, a caveat regarding this matter may be advisable. It should be kept in mind that statistical numbers are really a snapshot in time and space. They certainly may indicate a trend in the here and now -- at this specific time in this particular place -- but the numbers provide no guarantee, of course, that they are absolutely prophetic regarding the future. Things can change rapidly in our modern age of rapid transportation and communication. Trends can point toward a future; they cannot write that future. Penn realizes this, naturally, and notes that "The future rarely turns out as predicted. The reason is that most predictions are driven by the same conventional wisdom that drives the daily consensus around us, and are usually based on the big, easily spotted observations like the spread of the global economy. But as you dig deeper, you see a world teeming with lesser-known, harder-to-spot developments that really are the small forces that will drive tomorrow's big changes." Can't argue with that!
"Microtrends" is very readable and is not intended just for the specialist or professional. Most readers will find it comfortable reading and I suspect that statistics junkies will thoroughly enjoy the book. Whether or not the microtrends discussed turn out to be a realistic picture of the future doesn't really matter to most of us, but they are a fascinating picture of where we are now. Finally, Penn provides many helpful charts and tables, as well as thirty-nine pages of sources, and a handy topical index. Highly recommended.
Delicious Reading September 20, 2007
Keith Frome (Amherst, NY United States)
9 out of 11 found this review helpful
When I got Microtrends in the mail, I was sitting at the kitchen counter chatting with my wife as she cooked dinner. I immediately opened the book and started reading it like a box of chocolates. I chose the chapters that looked tasty and relevant to my life (e.g. pets and education) and just started to read out loud. Then I went to the next one and the next one and the next one, entertaining my wife as she chopped and stirred and broiled our supper. Like eating through a box of chocolates, reading Microtrends can become a bit compulsive. What we discovered about the book was how much we thought we were distinct indvividuals but how many microtrends we are actually a part of--an existentially humbling realization to be sure but comforting at the same time. Microtrends is, therefore, not only a glimpse of America at this moment in time, but it is also a book about self-discovery. It is great fun to read-one delicious morsel at a time.
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