The Philosophy of Keynes' Economics (Economics As Social Theory)

I thought it was a quite brilliant read in almost all aspects. Of course, some chapters were better than others - Sheila Dow's chapter was superb, Rod O'Donnell's didn't match my own thinking, but overall the book is a great introduction to students studying Keynes' thought and an even better read for more mature readers who have perhaps forgotten the importance of the great man!


Confusions about Keynes's "non-numerical"probabilities.   June 27, 2004
Michael Emmett Brady (Bellflower, California ,United States)
The 19 authors in this book of essays have read Ramsey's 1922 and 1926 reviews of the TP(1921),Keynes's 4 page review and eulogy in the New Statesman of Ramsey's works,and chapters 1-4,6 of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability plus 5-10 pages of the remaining 28 chapters, apparently chosen at random.Over 75% of the references to the TP are made to one chapter,chapter 3.Chapter 3 is an introductory chapter written by Keynes for readers with a lack of training in mathematics,logic and statistics.Unfortunately,most of the authors of these essays assume that chapter 3 is the most important chapter in the book.In fact, this chapter ranks as 30th in importance.Like Ramsey before them,a reading that concentrates on chapters 1-4,6 of the TP leads one into an intellectual and logical quagmire concerning Keynes's use of the term non-numerical.For Keynes,there are two ways to measure probabilities-precise numerical(single number)point estimates and non-numerical(not by a single numeral or number but by two numbers)imprecise interval (set)estimates.Of course,intervals(sets)can overlap with one another,creating problems of nonrankability,noncomparability and incommensurability.Take two different intervals,[.4,.6]and[.5,.7].These intervals are not ordinally or cardinally rankable or comparable.However,they are certainly measurable.Keynes provided the first axiomatic treatment,defined on sets of propositions,of the multiplication and addition operations[conjunction and disjunction] in chapter 12 on pages 135-138.Extensions occur on pages 104-107 and pages 158-160.Contrary to Fioretti[2003,p. 139],Keynes did not make"seemingly awkward statements concerning non-numerical probabilities."The actual technique Keynes developed in the TP for interval estimates was called "approximation".It was based on Boole's work in his 1854 book,The Laws of Thought.Keynes develops and adapts Boole's approach in chapters 5,10,15,16 and 17 of the TP. Contrary to Fioretti, von Kries has absolutely NOTHING to do with the interval estimation approach of J.M. Keynes. The failure to read anything in the TP beyond chapter 3 and a few other scattered pages selected at random is illustrated in the essays written by McCann,Jr. and Meeks.Contrary to Meeks,it simply is not true that"...for the full story,see CWVIII,especially Part I,Chapter 3".Not a single essay provides even a hint of Keynes's interval estimate approach,except for the mysterious and unsubstantiated claims of Fioretti that Keynes built his interval estimate approach on J von Kries.Keynes himself stated that he was building on the work of the genius George Boole.Not a single essay in this book demonstates for the reader HOW Keynes's approach is operational,excepting cases where the Principle of Indifference is applicable.The reader can learn much more about the applicability of Keynes's system by reading Chapters 29-30 of the TP concerning the use of Chebyshev's Inequality for providing a lower bound for probability estimates.