The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology | 
 enlarge | Author: Ray Kurzweil
Publisher: Penguin (Non-Classics)
Category: Book
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Rating:  125 reviews
Sales Rank: 5247
Media: Paperback
Pages: 672
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Dimensions (in): 8.8 x 5.9 x 1.7
ISBN: 0143037889
Dewey Decimal Number: 660
EAN: 9780143037880
Publication Date: September 26, 2006
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Product Description
For over three decades, Ray Kurzweil has been one of the most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his classic The Age of Spiritual Machines, he argued that computers would soon rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our creations.
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 Technophilic ecstacy September 22, 2005
Dr. Lee Carlson (Saint Louis, Missouri USA)
77 out of 89 found this review helpful
The author is definitely one of the most inspiring of all researchers in the field of applied artificial intelligence. For those, such as this reviewer, who are working "in the trenches" of applied AI, his website is better than morning coffee. One does not have to agree with all the conclusions reached by the author in order to enjoy this book, but he does make a good case, albeit somewhat qualitative, for the occurrence, in this century, of what he and other futurists have called a `technological singularity.' He defines this as a period in the future where the rate of technological change will be so high that human life will be `irreversibly transformed.' There is much debate about this notion in the popular literature on AI, but in scientific and academic circles it has been greeted with mixed reviews. Such skepticism in the latter is expected and justified, for scientists and academic researchers need more quantitative justification than is usually provided by the enthusiasts of the singularity, which in this book the author calls "singularitarians." Even more interesting though is that the notion of rapid technological change seems to be ignored by the business community, who actually stand to gain (or lose) the most by it.
Since this book is aimed primarily at a wide audience, and not professional researchers, the author does not include detailed arguments or definitions for the notion of machine intelligence or a list of the hundreds of examples of intelligent machines that are now working in the field. Indeed, if one were to include a discussion of each of these examples, this book would swell to thousands of pages. There are machines right now used in business and industry that can manage, troubleshoot, and analyze networks, diagnose illnesses, compose music definitely worth listening to, choreograph dances, simulate human behavior in computer games, recommend and engage in financial transactions and bargaining, and many, many other tasks, a detailed list of which would, again, entail many thousands of pages.
There are various psychological issues that arise when discussing machine intelligence, which if believed might prohibit the acceptance of any kind of notion of a technological singularity. For example, it is one of the historical peculiarities of research in AI that advances in the field are later trivialized, i.e. when a problem in AI becomes solved it no longer holds any mystery and is then considered to be just another part of information processing. It is then no longer regarded as `intelligent' in any sense of the term. This phenomenon in AI research might be called the "Michie-McCorduck-Hofstader effect", named after the three individuals, Donald Michie, Barbara McCorduck, and Douglas Hofstader, who discussed it some detail in their writings. If one examines the history of AI, one finds many examples of this effect, such as in knowledge discovery from databases, the use of business rules in database technologies, and the use of ontologies for information systems development. One of the best examples of this effect though is the backgammon player TD-Gammon, a highly sophisticated example of machine intelligence but which is now considered to be merely part of the "programmer's toolbox." The Michie-McCorduck-Hofstader effect is important in discussing the notion of a technological singularity since if one does occur this effect would diminish one's ability to recognize it as being real. The author does not name this phenomenon as such in the book, but a reading of it definitely reveals that he is aware of the skepticism expressed by many towards any "advances" in machine intelligence.
Another one of these psychological issues regards the attitude of many philosophers on the notion of machine intelligence. In most cases they are extremely skeptical, and many AI researchers seem to feel the need to "refute" their opinions on the "impossibility" of intelligent machines. Unfortunately the author is one of these, and devotes space in the book to counter various philosophical arguments against AI. His arguments, although valid, are really a waste of time though. Such time would be better spent, both for the author and for AI researchers, in the actual development of intelligent machines. A moratorium should be declared among AI researchers on all philosophical speculation. Such musings are best left to professional philosophers, who have the time and the inclination to indulge themselves in them.
There are other issues that should have been given more attention in the book, such as more details on the energy requirements needed to bring about such a singularity. In addition, the author needs to sharpen just what he means by intelligence and move away from the Turing test/human brain benchmark that he uses in the book. There are many examples of intelligence in the natural world, and these can and have been emulated in many different types of machines. Interestingly, the fixation on human intelligence and the reverse engineering of the human brain (that is exemplified in this book) has inspired a few research teams to attempt to build a machine of "general intelligence", i.e. one that can think in many different domains, as clearly humans can. But it is still an open question whether this intelligence is "entangled" over these domains, i.e. whether or not a decrease in ability in one domain will affect the ability in another. From an evolutionary or efficiency standpoint it would seem that that domain specific intelligence is more optimal.
The notion of a technological singularity can be met with both exhilaration and a sense of foreboding, since (radical) change can be embraced with enthusiasm and with some feelings of anxiety. Even the author expresses this when he writes in the book that he is not "entirely comfortable" with all the consequences of a technological singularity. He has though made a fairly strong case for rapidly accelerating change. If the book concentrated more on the actual examples of intelligent machines and included the enormous amount of data from activities in applied AI that are now going on, an even stronger case could be made.
"Get Ready! The Beginning is Near!" October 20, 2005
Dwight GoldWinde (Shanghai, China)
48 out of 60 found this review helpful
"Repent! The End is Near!"
If I saw a person holding up this sign on a street corner, I might think, "Poor fellow. Where has his mind gone? Too bad there are crazy people like this in the world."
Yet, in Ray Kurzweil's book "Singularity," his message is even more far out, but more like,
"Get Ready! The Beginning is Near!"
And yet, with Kurzweil, my response is, "Okay, I understand so far. Tell me more." Then I see the data. Then I see his inexorable logic. I would bet a lot of money on his predictions. "Singularity" is the most startling book I have ever read in my life (and I have read a lot of great books).
Well before the year 2030 (within 25 years), if you are still alive, you will have the choice about whether or not you want to "live forever" (in THIS reality; not some "afterlife").
Well before 2030, there will be a computer that, by all measures, will be smarter than the smartest "regular human" (i.e. non-computer-enhanced human) on this earth. This computer will then be able to invent an even smarter computer, which will then be able to invent an even smarter computer, which....
The changes in the next 14 years will be as much or more than the changes since 1955 (the last 50 years). And double again. And double again. And double again....we are fast approaching the asymptotic infinity of change and "progress"!
And there is basically nothing we can do about it. It will happen whether we like it or not (and most of us will end up liking it). We can "manage" it to some extent in order to provide a measure of protection against the end-of-the-world scenarios that could arise, either accidentally or intentionally, out of this run-away progress.
In his close-to-700-page manifesto, this is the essence of our future that Ray Kurzweil paints for us.
As an author myself ("Courage: the Choice that Makes the Difference-Your Key to a Thousand Doors"), I have a deep respect for what it takes to write a great book. The only other author that comes to mind whose breadth of knowledge and wisdom would compare with Kurzweil is philosopher Ken Wilber (although their writings are quite dissimilar). In reading Kurzweil I am continually amazed by the breadth and depth of his insights and conclusions.
There is one issue that he addresses from many perspectives (will computers become conscious? - his answer is "yes") that I cannot get my mind around. Even though his logic makes "sense" to me, I still can't quite accept it. However, that is not a big issue for me (as it might be for others), since, for all intents and purposes, I can totally accept that computers will be able to APPEAR as fully human (should they "choose" to do so).
I noticed that some of the other reviewers of "Singularity" have faulted Kurzweil for his optimism. Although I can see their point, I think that neither optimism nor pessimism is most appropriate here. Obviously we are facing an eventuality that holds the possibility of both the greatest promise as well as the greatest peril. Creativity, intelligence, and courage are our best tools at this unprecedented time in the history of our solar system.
I give "Singularity" five stars. It ranks that based solely upon the "wake up call" it is for humanity.
[...]
Intelligence as imperialism? July 16, 2006
Stephen A. Haines (Ottawa, Ontario Canada)
14 out of 15 found this review helpful
The role of the "futurist" is difficult and often thankless. The more daring of the tribe, among whom Kurzweil is prominent, will apply deadlines to forecasts. That's always risky, and failure to meet them appears to undermine the concept. Kurzweil, however, is able to brush aside such trivial complaints to focus on the bigger issues. How fast is technology improving and how will these advances affect humanity. For him, the answer is clear - humanity and technology will merge. The result will be Version 2.0 of humanity with enhanced intellect and bodies that will not "wear out". Kurzweil's "Singularity" is that point at which the merger will be complete. And final - a word to keep in mind.
The basis of his thesis is the advance of technology, typified by GNR [Genetics, Nanotechnology and Robotics]. While these sound intimidating, one need not be highly conversant with the technologies to understand his argument. He explains them all clearly. Basing his project on the well-known "Moore's Law" - computing power will double every eighteen months - Kurzweil shows how computer processing capacity will soon outstrip that of the human brain. Once that transformation is achieved, it will be a short step to enhance existing technology to reforming the human body. The heart, an inefficient and vulnerable pump, can be replaced by a easily repairable mechanical version. The grumbling intestinal tract can dispense with all those E. coli bacteria and an energy transfer mechanism, requiring greatly reduced resources can take its place.
To transform the speed and capacity of a silicon-based device to a carbon-based biological entity seems anomalous to some and blasphemous to others. Kurzweil dismisses the second objection and carefully explains how the first is short-sighted. While computers run on a digital system, the brain runs on a combination of digital storage and analog processing. In many respects, replacement limbs and organs, "smart" weaponry, and much medical diagnosis already is automated and transmitted around the planet for analysis. Kurzweil takes us a major step beyond this - he even addresses the notion of human intelligence encompassing the cosmos. This is the "Anthropic Principle" writ very large, and on a practical basis.
Kurzweil uses a tried and true method to address the concerns he anticipates. Creating or adopting various characters such as "Molly 2004", Ned Ludd, "George 2048" - even Charles Darwin and Bill Gates, he's able to pose and answer questions of common concern. He even stages an argument between bacteria at life's origins about how evolution will lead them to become something more "advanced". It's a mild fantasy, but a serious object lesson in this context. He would be a tough debater on this topic. One thing is clear: the objections on "moral" grounds are thoroughly addressed through this means. The technological issues are a given in his estimate. From the evidence he presents, he's close to the mark.
There will be critics contending Kurzweil ignores this or that issue. He does address the issue of "terrorism" and notes preventive measures must be applied up front. The biggest omission, however, is the social one. He argues that the declining cost of technology will allow it to be applied universally. Still, there remain questions about distribution and willingness. It's abundantly clear that the first applications of the Singularity will occur in the developed countries by people who can afford it. Declining costs require a time frame, and what can occur between inception of the programme and universal application escape Kurzweil's notice. While he proposes "brain imaging" from carbon humanity to silicon humanity, he ignores the breadth of possible personalities that will undergo the process. Will a radical fundamentalist of any stripe retain a similar worldview after becoming "immortal"? In a similar vein, how many cultures will wish to participate in the enhancement? Will the Singularity initiate a new form of imperialism, the "immortals" dominating the MOSH [Mostly Original Substrate Humans]? And will the MOSH form along cultural or "ethnic" lines? Kurzweil's unspoken assumption is that everybody else does indeed wish to be like us - even more so.
If Kurzweil ignores these questions, preferring to let others resolve them while he concentrates on the technical issues, we can still find this a valuable study. It's not something that can be lightly dismissed. There's far too much valid information and prediction in here for short-sighted criticism. Kurzweil has done a great service in collecting and summarising the state of today's technology. If his projections frighten you, that doesn't refute his foundation for them. There is nothing fabricated here, and if nothing else, you can use his information to develop your own future scenarios. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
An Absolute Gem of a Book November 5, 2006
Richard Stoyeck (Westport, CT)
23 out of 27 found this review helpful
Ray Kurzweil is a national treasure, a man who thinks at the level of Einstein but only 50 years later. There are a number of people like Kurzweil walking around on the planet. You have to search for them. When you find them, try to learn everything you can from them. They will help you move exponentially to the next level. He is a solitary thinker, operating on the outer limits of human knowledge, and then some.
I have read his other books, and in many ways, this book is the sequel to "The Age of Spiritual Machines". What Kurzweil is writing about in this book is his belief that we are moving towards s UNION if you will, of human intelligence and machines or objects that will have equal and eventually superior intelligence. Is this the goal of the people who spend their lives working in Artificial Intelligence, probably?
The difference is that Kurzweil knows so much more than his fellow thinkers, and more importantly for us, he has the capacity to convey it to those of us who are not full-time players in his arena. This quality of information conveyance is a vastly underappreciated skill. In my work investing billions of dollars in stock investments, I have access to just about anybody I want, because I have the capacity to write a check. You have no idea how many actual geniuses I deal with who CAN'T speak, let alone write the English language.
Kurzweil is different. He can get these concepts across to us in an interesting language spiced with stories that we can all understand. He does not visibly suffer from the ego needs of most geniuses. He is comfortable in his own skin, and that feeling is conveyed to us also.
Due to his position in the exalted world of the super Mensa types, Kurzweil can also access the top minds of who's doing what in the world today. Men who run Fortune 100 companies are more than willing to share the knowledge of their research departments with this famous thinker.
At the upper levels of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the Defense Department are some of the smartest people on the planet working on Artificial Intelligence, and edge-of-knowledge sophisticated computer applications. Kurzweil is in a position to interact with all of them, and this accounts for why much of what he writes about appears nowhere else.
He also brings something else to the table. He is a very successful inventor and entrepreneur who is now independently wealthy. He knows what works in what environment, and what doesn't. He knows when something is being brought to market too early, or way too late. In the book he states, "I realized that most inventions fail not because the R&D department can't get them to work, but because the timing is wrong. Inventing is a lot like surfing: you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment." I am an investor; I have never heard it said better.
His concept of his "intuitive linear view of history" is absolutely fascinating, and compelling. He believes that the rate of change is accelerating. For years we have all heard the concept that the only constant is change. Kurzweil believes the calculus is changing. We have already entered a world where we are witnessing a dramatic change in the rate of acceleration of change.
Just ten or so years ago, cell phones had minimal impact. The Internet was nowhere near the adaptive state it is in today, and universal information flow did not exist. There were no bloggers, traditional media dominated, and people were more easily lied to by politicians with impunity. Things are changing aren't they?
Here's the bottom line on Kurzweil. Most of the time you read a book to take one major thought out of the document. Sometimes it's a single page; sometimes it's a single line. Occasionally, you find that rare book where there is something on every page that is outstanding, motivating, even framework changing. This is such a book, and therein lays its importance.
There's one more reason to read a book like this. Do you remember when Ross Perot ran for President? One of the metaphors he used to refer to was a story of the carpenter he knew. The words were "Measure twice, cut once." This is an example of what I call the need to be mentored. There are people that can teach you things that if you spent 20 years studying the topic, you would never learn. The carpenters' of "Measure twice, cut once," is an example of that.
When you read Kurzweil, you are eliminating the need to read hundreds to thousands of other books. There is knowledge on every page for you to absorb and ponder. Buy this book, and have an orgasm of the mind.
Richard Stoyeck
Agree or disagree, it's well worth a read October 3, 2005
Stephen C. Clark
29 out of 33 found this review helpful
I'm going to rate this book five stars, because at nearly 500 pages packed with important ideas (plus another hundred pages of notes) there is no question that this weighty book was well worth my $20.
As you might expect, Ray is at the top of his game when examining trends in computer science. He has many examples of "narrow" A.I. to share. More importantly, he believes that computer modeling of brain functioning will yield the algorithms we need in order to eventually achieve an artificial general intelligence. Indeed, cognitive science is exploding thanks to increases in computing and scanning power, and the brain will likely yield up many of its secrets in coming years. I find his predictions in this area quite believable.
I found some of his arguments regarding nanotechnology to be less convincing. In particular, his predictions for nanorobotics seem optimistic beyond all reason given the currently nascent state of this technology. Examples drawn from the current state of the art seem almost hopelessly far removed from the robust and exceedingly powerful technology he imagines within 25 years. On the other hand, if these surprising predictions are borne out it will be a powerful confirmation of his "law of accelerating returns". I guess I'll be reserving judgement until then.
There's alot more I could say (good and bad) about this important book, but the bottom line is that if you frequently find yourself wondering about the role of technology in the future of our species, "The Singularity is Near" will give you far more than your money's worth in food for thought.
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